Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. Syracuse Orange o135.5 (-103)
United Center, Chicago, Illinois
March 25, 2016 6:40PM PDT
Our sim framework is calling for a combined total of 138-139 when the 11-seeded Gonzaga Bulldogs try the Syracuse Orange, ranked one slot higher. We, obligingly, side with the over.
Relevant betting trends appear to support our play, as for one, Gonzaga tends toward the over when favored (17-13), while Syracuse exhibits an over bias as the underdog (8-5). Moreover, games after extended rests have generally been higher scoring contests for both teams during the regular season (the Bulldogs' o/u 9-4 after 4+ days off, the Oranges 6-3).
Bottom Line: In a departure from our known under bias, we are taking the over here. Betting trends appear to support our sim work.
Of note, per SportsInsights, 72% of totals bets support the over--which is to say the secret is clearly out. OddsShark puts the opening line at 134. Thus the move to 135.5 represents a meaningful change. I wouldn't delay on this one.
Happy betting!!