Detroit Pistons +3 (-105) @ Chicago Bulls u206.5 (-105)
United Center, Chicago, Illinois
April 2, 2016, 5:00PM PDT
The four simulation routines on our roster are evenly split: two models give the road dogs the modest advantage, while the other two make the home team to be slightly superior. Our power rankings work is similarly divergent, with one factor giving Chicago the straight up edge while the other expects Detroit to eke out the win.
In aggregate though, our system forecasts a Bulls win by about a point (102-101), short of the 2.5 points Chicago supporters are giving up, and below the total line of 206.5. As such, we are backing the Pistons to cover (but would not be surprised if Detroit pulls off the upset victory) . With a expected total of 203, our multi-pronged simulation work likewise highlights the under.
The Bulls are riding a two-game win streak, however Chicago is 14-23 ATS following winning efforts. Further, the Bulls are 12-17 versus the number when expected to win at home, 17-26 against the spread when playing on one night's rest and 18-29 facing competition from the Eastern Conference.
Betting trends likewise appear supportive of our totals play. The Pistons' o/u is 16-21 this season when playing away from The Palace, and 10-15 from the position of away underdog. Chicago's over is 16-21-1 at United Center and 12-16-1 as the home favorite.
Per SportsInsights, spread bets are skewed in Chicago's way (58%/42%), while o/u betting action is about evenly split.
Note: Our sim work assumes Derrick Rose will not play, however, we are resolved to stick with this play even if Chicago's starting point guard does go this evening.
Happy betting!!