Chicago Bulls @ Milwaukee Bucks u203 (-108)
BMO Harris Bradley Center, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
April 3, 2016, 4:00PM PDT
Our computer simulation work forecasts a combined total of 201 this afternoon when the Bucks host the Bulls.
In support of our sim-derived play, we note that while Chicago's o/u performance following a loss has been essentially random (19-18), Milwaukee's over is 10-21 after a win. Moreover, the Bucks' o/u is 6-11 when favored to win at BMO Harris Bradley Center, while, again, Chicago's (14-13) over record as the road dog is virtually benign.
We did find one relevant situational betting trend that we regard as somewhat troubling: both teams tend toward the over in intra-conference play (teh Bulls and Bucks sport a 53-40 combined o/u from this spot). However, we see this one negative as being meaningfully outweighed by the strength of the signal from our sim work and Milwaukee's under bias in a variety of analogous conditions.
Back the under.
Happy betting!!