By several accounts, Tony Salinas' Zig-zag Theory has proved a profitable strategy for betting games 2 and 3 especially of the NBA playoffs (see here for details). A key tenet of this approach is that bettors should back the previous loser in games 2 through the end of a series. Justification for the system's historical efficacy include 1) the notion that bettor emotions result in exaggerated moves in betting lines, and/or 2) the idea that losing efforts are likely to spawn increased resolve and focus in a team's next out, which commonly translates to victories in follow-up contests.
Covers and DocSports each find that the Zig-zag Theory has yielded win rates of 54-55% when applied to only the second and third games of post-season series. This historical observation clearly favors the road dogs today (except for the Pacers, who knocked off the Raptors on the road Saturday to kick off their series).
Our computer simulation, power rankings and sentiment framework (mostly) supports today's Zig-zag Theory-implied picks. We see the Thunder beating the Mavs by 10 or 11, an insufficient margin to earn the cover, and the Warriors sending the Rockets back to Houston with an 11 point loss, similarly, not enough for the Dubs to earn consecutive ATS wins. Notably, the system's preference for the Pacers to cover again at Toronto does run counter to the rationale of the Zig-zag Theory.
Indiana Pacers +7 @ Toronto Raptors
Our primary framework makes Toronto to be only about four points better than Indiana this evening--several points shy of the 7 point betting line. However, we are aware of the seemingly consistent resiliency of home teams and favorites in the immediate wake of playoff losses (54 and 56% respective cover rates since 2003, per Winafy). Playoff teams have likewise shown an edge against-the-spread in games following a double-digit loss (54% cover rate). As such, this is the pick that causes us the most consternation.
Dallas Mavericks +13 @ Oklahoma City Thunder
The Mavs were 2-2 ATS facing the Thunder during the regular season, so we do not deem it a stretch to forecast a cover as 13 point underdogs today -- even after the 38 point thumping Dallas was handed on Saturday. In fact, current conditions might represent a rather ideal set-up for the Zig-zag Theory, as, as referenced previously, it has paid to back NBA playoff teams to cover following double-digit losses. Also, Dallas has demonstrated a modest edge versus Oklahoma City in head-to-head play, covering six time in 11 games since 2014. And finally, despite being loaded with talent, we reiterate the Thunder's ATS vulnerability when laying double digits.
Houston Rockets +13.5 @ Golden State Warriors
After managing a dismal 30-84 (36%) from the floor broadly and 6-22 (27%) from distance for a total of 78 points, it is not hard to imagine a better game from Houston Monday night than they managed Saturday. Sure, by various measures the Warriors are among the top defensive teams in the league, so some of Houston's reduced productivity owed to Golden State's stern play against the ball, however the Warriors allowed an average of 104 points per game during the regular season, and the Rockets finished fourth by PPG and eighth by True Shooting Percentage. Thus, we are confident an improvement is imminent.
(We are assuming Curry will play, however, the NBA's preeminent guard did not practice Sunday, and is listed as day-to-day per Rotoworld. If Curry can not go, our confidence in a Rockets win versus the number increases.)
Happy betting!!