INJURY REARS ITS UGLY HEAD -- RB's ESPECIALLY IMPACTED
Starting at the quarterback position, as virtually everyone on the planet agrees that the play of man behind the center is the most important determinant of team success, New England's replacement, Jimmy Garoppolo, suffered an AC joint separation, compliments of a Kiko Alonso hit in the second quarter of the Dolphins @ Patriots. Garoppolo's fate is uncertain for week 3. The Chicago Bears Jay Cutler also exited the week 2 home game versus the Eagles prior to the conclusion of play. Cutler suffered an injury to his right hand and is expected to miss two or three weeks.
But yes, calamity was particularly unkind to the running back position in week 2. The Vikings Adrian Peterson's season ended when he tore the meniscus in his right knee; the Buccaneers' Doug Martin was sidelined early in the second quarter at the Cardinals by a bum hamstring, and is expected to sit out the next three weeks; the Panthers also lost running back, Jonathan Stewart (for two to four weeks) to hamstring issues; following teammate, WR Keenan Allen's week 1 lead, Chargers' RB, Danny Woodhead, succumbed to a torn ACL Sunday; the Lions' Ameer Abdullah's week 2 foot injury apparently required surgery--Abdullah is done for at least eight weeks; rounding out the list of afflicted RBs in week 2, Miami's Arian Foster is expected to miss action this week due to a groin injury.
We, by no means intend to represent the foregoing as a complete guide to significant week 2 injuries. For more comprehensive coverage, see here.
THE DUBIOUS LEADERS
Last week's edition of Looking Under the Hood highlighted the success replacement QB's enjoyed in week 1. This cohort went 5-1 against the spread to kick off the new season, despite garnering only nominal support (i.e betting volume). In week 2, Trevor Siemian (DEN), Dak Prescott (DAL), the Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett tandem (NE) and Carson Wentz (PHI) all delivered ATS beats.
On the other hand, Blaine Gabbert's performance in the Niners 28-0 week 1 rout of the Rams was the second-best showing at the QB position that week, however, the sixth season backup regressed mightily in week 2. Gabbert's Raw QBR of 47.9 lies well below the week 2 median of 63.1. San Francisco lost by 19 to the Cardinals Sunday, failing to cover as 14 point dogs.
Thus, at 4-1, replacement quarterbacks continued to perform last week, fitting with our working hypothesis that the public overestimates the difference between starting and replacement level QBs. Jimmy Garoppolo's injury and expected absence will try our thesis though.
HOME IS WHERE THE COVER IS
Between 2012 and 2015, home teams covered in only 48.8% of all regular season games. While not dramatically different than odds implied by a coin-toss, the implied edge for road teams is statistically significant. Additionally, teams playing in their own buildings have surpassed the 50% win rate for a season only once over the last four completed seasons.
Against this backdrop, we note with interest that home teams were 9-7 in week 2 (favorites were 6-5, dogs were 2-1, two games closed as PICKs).
THE PRESCIENCE OF THE SPREAD
According to TheFootballLines.com, the direction of change in the betting spread correctly finished the week 9-5. This strong showing almost exactly offsets the 5-10 record registered in week 1.
Research by Boulier & Stekler (2003) compared the betting line, power rankings-based forecasts, a naive betting model and the opinion of a leading sports editor; this study concluded that the line is the best estimator of actual outcomes. Similarly, Xu (2013) analyzed data for college and professional football games played between 2007 and 2012 and found "the betting line at the close is an accurate and unbiased predictor of actual game outcomes".
The body of empirical support for the closing line as a predictor of game outcomes fits with the line's performance last week. Expect the spread to notch more winning weeks going forward.
TOTALS NORMALIZE
After a modest (9-7) winning week for the OVER to kick off the NFL season, the UNDER asserted itself ever so slightly in week 2 (with an 8-7-1 out). Thus, the OVER is 16-15-1 overall. If history is a guide, expect a streak from the UNDER.
ANY GIVEN SUNDAY
As a follow up to the decided edge dogs exhibited in week 1, according to closing lines reported by VegasInsider.com, favorites and underdogs split 14 week 2 games. Underdogs still sport a profitable 56.7% win rate on the season though.
THE NITTY GRITTY
Our against the spread picks started off slowly. We dropped our first pick of week 2, the Bills +1.0, slightly sullying our strong Thursday Night Football record of late. The combination of Ryan Fitzpatrick's arm and Matt Forte legs proved a formidable tandem. The Jets' QB notched 376 yards through the air, one touchdown reception and no interceptions, while New York's workhorse running back amassed 100 yards and THREE touchdowns on the ground (on 30 carries!). While Tyrod Taylor's 278 yards and three TDs performance was nothing to sneeze at, the second quarter, in which Buffalo was outscored 14-3, would prove to be the Bills' undoing.
Early Sunday was no better for us, as, though the Niners managed to hang with the Panthers for much of the game, San Francisco had no answer for Kelvin Benjamin's two TD catches in the third. In the end, this 14-0 quarter proved insurmountable for the 49ers'.
Interestingly, SportsInsights reported a significant line tightening and reverse line movement for San Francisco at the Panthers last Sunday. We jumped on San Francisco at +14, versus a closing line of +11.5 or +12. All the while the percentage of wagers backing the 49ers slid from the 50 percent ballpark down to the mid-20s.
Our next play, the Chiefs to cover, likewise saw significant reverse line movement in the days leading up to kickoff. SportsInsights reports Kansas City morphed from three point dogs to PICK just before the action commenced. Regardless, the Chiefs were unable to find the endzone against Houston's smothering defense, and Kansas City ultimately lost by a touchdown.
We are particularly surprised by our early Sunday outcomes given the general backdrop of support for the idea that the line contains predictive ability, the finding by Crawford (2015) that approximately 55% of NFL teams that see reverse line movement vs. opposition from the same conference covered and the specific success of the line in forecasting week 2 winners. We do not expect picks that exhibit high closing line value to lose over extended periods.
By Sunday Night Football, we found our groove. The contraction of the Minnesota line from +2.5 to +1 in the lead up to this contest did, in this instance, foreshadow a Vikings win and cover . Our Monday Night Football play on the Eagles to beat the number likewise cashed in, despite the line moving a half point against us.
Our spread picks finished 2-3 on the week, for a loss of 1.27 units.
The 20 point third quarter stands out as damning our call on the UNDER in the Cowboys @ Redskins. After the two teams traded TD drives, a failed Dallas onside kick gave Washington a short field, and ultimately yielded a field goal. A Cowboys fumble on their next possession would result in another field goal for the home team.
With 29 total points through three quarters, our UNDER 47 was looking pretty good for the Colts @ Broncos...until Luck was intercepted for a Denver TD in the first series of the fourth. But even with less than two minutes remaining, a PUCH appeared highly likley...until a Luck fumble was recovered for another Denver touchdown. An 18 point fourth quarter for the Broncos put the nail in teh UNDER's coffin.
And finally, as in Denver, early on, the UNDER looked poised to cash in in Oakland. Neither the Falcons nor the Raiders made an impression on the scoreboard in the first quarter. Things began to heat up in the second though, as the teams combined for 20--but UNDER 46 backers still appeared secure at the half. Atlanta and Oakland combined for 43 in the third and fourth quarters though, killing the UNDER by a full two touchdowns. With the third and second worst defensive performances of the week, the story here is that, after the first quarter, both the Falcons and Raiders units were simply inept on the other side of the ball.
We regard only the Falcons / Raiders beat as a bad pick -- two (known) bad defenses played defense badly, resulting in a ton of points, and hope to avoid such scenarios going forward. In our other two totals losses, we can highlight some an unpredictable variable (i.e. scores from turnovers, the decision to onside kick relatively early in a game) that made the difference. As such, we are still optimistic about our approach's potential.
Our six totals picks split, generating a loss of 0.27 units.
See you next week.
Happy betting!!