Miami Dolphins +7.5 (-105) @ Cincinnati Bengals
Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio
September 29, 2016, 5:25PM PDT
Our primary (power rankings) ATS handicapping factors make the Bengals to be about five to seven points better than the visiting Dolphins Thursday evening. Two of our three supplemental (computer simulation) indicators corroborate this thinking. Accordingly, we are taking the points--north of the key seven level--and backing the road dogs to cover.
The position of home favorite does not ideally suit Cincinnati, as the Bengals are 6-7-2 versus the number since 2014 when expected to win at home, including an 0-3-1 ATS stand in their last four games at Paul Brown Stadium. However, Miami has been even worse as an away underdog, amassing a record of 5-8 ATS over this same horizon.
In the Dolphins favor though, while these teams do not square off often, Miami has dominated the 11 game series versus the Bengals. The Fins are 9-2 ATS all-time, including a 7-1 stint in Cincinnati. Further, the Dolphins have covered each of the head-to-head meetings since 2010--as visitors in two instances.
But in addition to favorable signals from our primary (power rankings) systems and supportive betting trends, we also note that a mere 30% of public spread wagers favor Miami to cover. We regard this observation as a contrarian support for the Dolphins to beat the number.
Finally, we discount personnel matters, such as the return of Cincinnati linebacker, Vontaze Burfict, and the absence of Dolphins' running back, Arian Foster. Our operating theory is that the difference between most starting and replacement level players is, on average, an insignificant factor in determining the ATS outcome (see the Dubious Leaders section of our weekly Under the Hood piece for details).
Happy betting!!