Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants u7.5 -105
AT&T Park, San Francisco, California
October 11, 2016, 5:40PM PDT
The Giants eked out a narrow win in the 13th inning Monday night, in a game our forecasts estimated too close to call. The NLDS series now sits at 2-1 Chicago, with game four scheduled to take place at AT&T Park this afternoon.
We are not settled on whether the Cubs will secure a spot tonight in the National League Championship Series, as our sim work is split. While we expect Chicago to ultimately advance, we note that the Giants are 7-1 in their last eight playoff appearances. Further, the Cubs are 1-5 in their last half dozen games in San Francisco. Also, the Giants have been sterling in recent years in situations where they might be closed out, having staved off the the last ten potential eliminations.
Despite our uncertainty regarding which team might collect the win this evening, we like the UNDER. Cubs pitcher, John Lackey, is rock solid. For instance, Lackey ranks 5th in hits allowed, 11th in runs allowed and 10th in walks + hits per inning pitched, Also, the UNDER is 6-2-1 in recent head-to-head play between the Cubs and Giants, and 7-5 over the last dozen meetings in San Francisco.
Happy betting!!