Los Angeles Dodgers @ Washington Nationals ML -153
Nationals Park, Washington, D.C.
October 13, 2016, 5:08PM PDT
Our four favorite computer simulation routines all call for the Washington Nationals to bypass the Dodgers in the deciding game of the National League Division Series matchup. As such we are backing the home team on the moneyline.
In support of the output from our model, consider that the starting pitcher for Washington, Max Scherzer, is tops in walks + hits per inning pitched this year. Scherzer also ranks 3rd in total wins (9th in win percentage) and ties for 3rd by quality starts (4th in quality starts as a percentage of total starts). Further, the 9th year man from University of Missouri Columbia's 3.03 ERA sorts eighth among qualified MLB pitchers.
The Nationals appear most likely to move on from the perspective of betting trends too. The Dodgers are 10-23 this season as underdogs, including a 6-19 stretch when cast as road dogs. LA is also and 6-12 playing after one day's rest. On the other hand, Washington went 82-43 this season when expected to win (5th best in the league) and 51-32 when favored at home (good for 6th best in major league baseball).
Happy betting!!