Chicago Cubs ML -115 @ Cleveland Indians u6.5 -115
Progressive Field, Cleveland, Ohio
October 25, 2016, 5:08PM PDT
Two of our three favorite computer simulation routines give the Cubs a modest edge in the first game of the 112th edition of Major League Baseball's championship series, with the other program suggesting a meaningful advantage Chicago's way. As such, we are backing Chicago on the moneyline.
Bovada.lv's series price of -185 implies almost a 65% chance of the Cubs winning the World Series, a number that is consistent with the thinking of Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com--which gives the Cubbies a 63% chance of earning the Commissioner's Trophy this year. If the Cubs are indeed about twice as likely to bypass the Indians as the other way around, it seems highly probable that Chicago will grab at least one road win. Given the supportive indications from our sim work, tonight appears an opportune spot for a road win.
Also, consider that the Cubs are 5-2 all-time facing the Indians.
Separately, on average, our simulation work predicts a combined total of six runs scored at the conclusion of tonight's contest. Thus, the UNDER likewise appears compelling.
Happy betting!!