Minnesota Timberwolves @ Sacramento Kings o202.5 (-105)
Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, California
October 29, 7:30PM PDT
Our sim work calls for 209 total points when the final whistle blows on the Wolves at the Kings in Sacramento Saturday night. Accordingly, we are backing the OVER.
Minnesota finished last season with an O/U record of 44-36-2 overall. Further, the Wolves were 22-11-2 as road dogs, and 38-26-2 facing competition outside the Northwest Division of the NBA's Western Conference.
Similarly, the Kings OVER was 45-37 last year, including a 20-7 run when expected to win, a 36-30 stint facing teams outside the Western Conference's Pacific Division, and a 27-21 stretch playing after a night off.
Sacramento could muster only 94 points at home versus the Spurs Thursday, but San Antonio's stopping power is top-ten by Defensive Efficiency. Minnesota is bottom tercile by this same measure, so we expect an easier go registering points for the Kings this evening. Further, Minnesota is fifth in the league in turnovers committed, after finishing seventh last year. The Timberwolves' general carelessness with the ball is expected to translate to Sacramento points tonight, as the Kings are quite efficient scoring in the open floor (Sacramento is fifth in Fast Break Efficiency this season and were fourth last year).
Happy betting!!