Our week 10 against-the-spread picks highlight underdogs exclusively--the while we took the Jets as a pick, the current line is +1, so, at present, even this marginal picks meets the criteria.
Based on historical game data from AccuScore, home underdogs are a blistering 24-16 this season, for a 60% win rate. Last year, this cohort exhibited no edge (or disadvantage, for that matter)--teams receiving points in their own building finished the 2015-2016 NFL season 44-44-2 ATS. As such, momentum for the unfavored at home might be construed to support the Jets to cover vs versus the Rams, as well as the Eagles to beat the number hosting the Falcons (we got Philly +1.5 earlier in the week, however, the line has since tightened to PICK).
Underdogs have had a tougher go on the road this year (42-42-2 ATS), versus nominal achieving nominal profitability last year 87-78-8. While this context does not bode as well for our fallen angels plays (i.e. the Vikings, who have dropped their last three, and the Broncos, who are a tepid 2-3 ATS of late, after a hot 4-0 start), We note though that Minnesota is 5-2 versus Washington since 2006, and the Broncs are 4-1 in the last five facing the Saints.
The Texans and Cowboys are other road dogs on our NFL Sunday ticket. While Houston is an anxiety-producing 1-4 versus the number in their last five games, the Texans have covered three of the last four head-to-head meetings with the Jags. The Boys have won and covered in their last six straight, while the Steelers have lost three in a row.
We find further comfort, especially for our road dog picks, in the expected cover margin indicated by our primary factors. Also, we observe that the current calibration of our model has demonstrated strong season-to-date accuracy handicapping games involving these teams.
Note: In addition to the six plays indicated above, our work also highlights the Buccaneers and the 49ers as plays. However, our primary factors are only 6-8 versus the number picking games featuring Tampa Bay and Chicago, and 4-5 in San Francisco and Arizona matches. Accordingly, we are passing on these selections.
Happy betting!!