We highlight 17 totals picks for week 12 of college football action, with a heavy bias toward the OVER (11 of our plays call for higher than expected scores). This skew is somewhat troubling as the cumulative O/U record for the current NCAAF season is 281-295-7, for less than a 49% win rate (based on AccuScore's database of scores and spreads). Further, the OVER has cashed in less than half the time in each completed season since 2012.
However, we note that a strong day for OVER, as our work expects Saturday, does not preclude the season-long O/U register from trending toward the normal bias in favor of the UNDER. Moreover, we have been reminded on several occasions (usually at a notable cost) that we are not smarter than the computers. As such, we capitulate to our sim work and are playing all selections indicated below.
Nov 19, 9:00 AM, UL Lafayette Ragin Cajuns @ Georgia Bulldogs o44 -115
Nov 19, 9:00 AM, Wisconsin Badgers @ Purdue Boilermakers o48 -115
Nov 19, 11:00 AM, Oregon Ducks @ Utah Utes u70 -115
Nov 19, 11:30 AM, UL Monroe Warhawks @ Appalachian State Mountaineers o53 -110
Nov 19, 12:30 PM, Temple Owls @ Tulane Green Wave o44 -110
Nov 19, 12:30 PM, Buffalo Bulls @ Western Michigan Broncos o57 -110
Nov 19, 12:30 PM, Northwestern Wildcats @ Minnesota Golden Gophers o45 -115
Nov 19, 12:30 PM, Washington State Cougars @ Colorado Buffaloes o60 -110
Nov 19, 12:30 PM, Virginia Tech Hokies @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish o53 -105
Nov 19, 12:30 PM, Indiana Hoosiers @ Michigan Wolverines o51 -110
Nov 19, 1:30 PM, Texas State Bobcats @ New Mexico State Aggies u61 -110
Nov 19, 1:30 PM, Utah State Aggies @ Nevada Wolf Pack u55 -115
Nov 19, 4:00 PM, Clemson Tigers @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons o47 -110
Nov 19, 4:00 PM, Marshall Thundering Herd @ Florida Intl Golden Panthers u55 -110
Nov 19, 4:00 PM, South Florida Bulls @ SMU Mustangs u73 -110
Nov 19, 5:00 PM, Ole Miss Rebels @ Vanderbilt Commodores o50 -115
Nov 19, 5:00 PM, USC Trojans @ UCLA Bruins o52 -115
Games featured in outsized, bold font represent our highest conviction picks of the week. Bettors seeking to limit their action might focus solely on this trio.
Happy betting!!
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