Chicago Bulls @ Denver Nuggets +2.5 (-115)
Pepsi Center, Denver, Colorado
November 22, 2016, 6:00PM PST
Our sim framework picks the Nuggets to cover as home dogs this eve. Of note, Denver has covered in each of the last four head-to-head meetings with Chicago and in five of the last six contests at home. Further, the Nuggets are riding a four-game cover streak and are 9-4 ATS this season.
On the other hand, while the Bulls are a fiery10-4 versus the number this year, including covers in each of their last six out, tonight's contest marks the fifth road game for Chicago in an eight day span. Thus, we think fatigue might play a role in determining the outcome of Tuesday's action.
Also, the Bulls find themselves in the fairly unique position of being favored away from United Center this evening. While Chicago covered at Brooklyn as 6.5 point favorites earlier this season, we note that four of Chicago's five losses to date have come on the road. As such, asking these Bulls to lay points while travelling seems to us to be a stretch.
Bottom line: Consistent with recent history between these teams, we are looking for a settled Nuggets squad to secure the win versus the number over a road weary Bulls unit.
Happy betting!!