New Orleans Pelicans @ Phoenix Suns o214 (-110)
Talking Stick Resort Arena, Phoenix, Arizona
December 11, 2016, 5:30PM PST
Primarily on the basis of output from our most accurate NBA totals computer simulation routine, we like the OVER when the Pelicans travel to Phoenix this afternoon. In addition to getting the nod from our sim work, we note that the Suns O/U is 16-7 this season, including a 12-3 stretch facing Western Conference opposition, a 5-1 stint coming off a win and a 3-1 run from the favorite position.
The Pelicans' OVER is 13-11 overall this season. Further, New Orleans is 12-8 outside the Southwest Division and 10-7 versus the West. Of note though, the Pels saw action just last night--a less than ideal position for the OVER, generally speaking (New Orleans' O/U is 3-3 this year playing on zero nights rest). However, New Orleans' star Power Forward, Anthony Davis, rested Saturday night while his comrades endured a thorough thrashing at the hands of the Clippers. As such, the League's leading scorer is likely to be playing on pretty fresh legs this evening. Moreover, after watching Chris Paul and company pummel his teammates, Davis might have a bit of pent-up aggression to unleash tonight.
Phoenix operates at the fastest pace in the NBA (as measured by possessions per game, anyway), ranks #8 in offensive rebounding and points per game, and #24 in defensive efficiency. Each of these characteristics fit with a general OVER bias.
The Pelicans too rank in the top-ten in possessions per game, and will have at their disposal a rested version of the highest scoring player in the League this evening. The OVER is 4-1 in recent meetings between New Orleans and Phoenix, including paydays after each of the last two contests. This game has OVER written all over it, as far as we can tell.
Happy betting!!