Last week started off white-hot. We correctly backed the Vikings +3 Thursday Night, and then the Chiefs, Bears, Bengals and Broncos all delivered Sunday morning. By the completion of the early games last Sunday, only the Dolphins had failed to cover and we opened week 13 with a 5-1 out. However, the tides turned hard by the afternoon, with the Bills and Giants both disappointing. Further, the tough sledding continued through Monday night, as Carolina Sunday Night and the Jets the following evening each allowed 40 or more in blowout losses. When the dust finally settled, we were 6-5 for the week, for a +0.2 unit gain (assuming a bettor risked $100 per contest on each of our picks). This performance brings us to virtually flat on the year.
This week, we are betting every game on the NFL Sunday line-up. Eight of our 14 selections back underdogs, and five of that eight favor away teams. In general, road dogs have demonstrated a nominal edge season-to-date (63-60-5). However, away teams receiving less than four points are a healthy 31-24-2 (for better than a 56% win rate). This trend supports the Broncos, Cardinals, Jets and Saints.
We are also siding with four of the seven home dogs on the NFL week 14 calendar (we are taking the other side on the Browns, Jags and Rams contests). Backers of unfavored teams at home have cashed in after more than 58% of the 55 games (excluding the one push) fitting this bill this year. This observation validates our Bills, Eagles, Packers and Giants plays.
The Bengals and Falcons (two of the three road favorites we like this week) are each expected to win by better than five points. Road teams with at least this degree of favor are 7-5-1 (>58%) this season.
The table just below illustrates our actual wagers, including vigs we incurred, a quantitative assessment of our confidence in each play (expressed in average expected ATS margin of victory) and season-to-date accuracy stats for games selected by the current calibration of our model and featuring the involved teams.
Our picks include one full house signal, or focus game (shown in bold, black font in the graphic above): the Panthers -1 (recall that each of the five power rankings and computer simulation factors in our framework are in sync on the expected outcome of such contests). While this pick falls in the unprofitable category of home favorite, we derive comfort in the knowing that of 192 game completed through week 13, there have only been 20 full house signals, of which the current calibration of our model is 14-6 (70%) against the spread.
We also highlight three picks where our multiple computer simulation factors are unanimous in their prediction (indicated in the chart in bold, purple font). Like the full house signal, unison among our sim routines too is a fairly rare phenomenon (as indicated by the mere 35 occurrences of 192 games this season). Also akin to our focus games, this strongest indication from our sim work too boasts a 70% win rate.
Separately, the sentiment backdrop lends further support to our Buffalo, New Orleans, Philadelphia and New York Giants picks, as, per SportsInsights, these teams have each collected less than 40% of spread betting volume. On the other hand, our Cincinnati, Arizona, Detroit, Minnesota, Green Bay and Atlanta plays are aligned with the herd.
As a final note, we got the Cardinals +1 early in the week, before the sharp line shift to -2. Our model does not see value at the current level.
Happy betting!!