Oklahoma City Thunder @ Portland Trail Blazers o218 (-107)
Moda Center, Portland, Oregon
December 13, 2016, 7:30PM PST
Our sim work highlights the OVER when the Thunder kick off a two-game road trip at Moda Center this evening. In head-to-head play, the OVER has collected in each of the last three meetings, and in five of the last seven. Additionally, Portland's O/U is is 18-4 overall, 4-1 in their last five games and 8-2 in their last ten out. Further, the Blazers' OVER is 10-3 following a losing effort, 9-2 at Moda Center, 10-5 when favored to win and 12-5 facing Western Conference competition.
Conversely, the Thunder's O/U is 10-14 this year, and OKC is nursing a four game UNDER streak. Despite the Thunder's general predilection toward lower scores though, we note several characteristics that support the OVER tonight. For instance, Oklahoma City ranks #8 by average points per game, #3 in fast break points, #8 in percent of offensive rebounds claimed and #4 in possessions per contest. Also, the Thunder's Russell Westbrook is, at present, the highest scoring player in the League (although Anthony Davis' performance tonight versus Golden State might reclaim the top spot), so the Thunder always boast the potential for above average offense output.
The tight spread for this game also fits with the idea of a pay day for the OVER, as close games carry the heightened possibility of OT and/or an inflated number of free throws (teams lagging in a close contest commonly commit fouls late in the action to ensure additional possessions).
Bottom line: Look for an up-and-down contest tonight featuring a duel between Russell Westbrook for OKC and the Lillard / McCollum tandem for Portland. The offensive fire power both ways, these teams style of play and the evenness of this matchup are all consistent with a win for the OVER.
Happy betting!!