Golden State Warriors @ New Orleans Pelicans o224 (-105) Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Louisiana
December 13, 2016, 5:00PM PST
Our sim work favors the OVER when the Pelicans and Warriors meet for the third time this season -- OVER backers cashed in after each of the two previous meetings, as well as in the last two head-to-head contests of the 2015-2016 season.
These teams O/U is a combined 27-23, suggesting a slight natural bias in the OVER's direction. Further, we note that New Orleans' O/U is 5-2 following a win, 9-4 at Smoothie King Center (4-2 when receiving points at home) and 11-7 versus the West.
Also supporting the OVER, the Pelicans and Warriors both boast uptempo styles, as indicated by these teams #5 and #3 respective rankings by average number of possessions per game. We see both teams getting the ball up and down, and converting this evening.
Steph Curry, perhaps the best shooter in the League, seems due for a strong shooting performance tonight, following two games of below average scoring productivity (there has only been one instance this year where Curry has scored less than 25 three games in a row). Similarly, Kevin Durant has recorded six consecutive games of less than his average 25+ points. The unexceptional defense of the Pelicans might represent the ideal spot for an offensive explosion from the #8 scorer in the NBA. Finally, Anthony Davis is averaging 39 PPG facing the Warriors this year. The studly fifth year man seems to play up for the elevated competition that facing the Warriors entails.
Happy betting!!