Milwaukee Bucks @ Chicago Bulls -5.0 (-103) United Center, Chicago, Illinois
December 16, 2016, 5:00PM PST
The Bucks won and covered as one-point home favorites facing the Bulls last night. Milwaukee and Chicago are slated to match up again on Friday evening, but this time in Chicago. We like the Bulls to cover.
We note that Chicago is not particularly strong from the current position (i.e. the Bulls are 8-7 against Eastern Conference competition, 6-5 ATS coming off a loss, 6-5 at home, 4-5 when favored at United Center and 2-3 on zero nights rest). However, Milwaukee's betting trends suggest the Bucks are notably worse than the Bulls from the current spot. For instance, Milwaukee is 0-4 versus the number in the second game of back-to-back outs, 2-6 when receiving points on the road and 5-11 in intra-conference play.
One of these teams has to cover tonight. Our sim work plus our interpretation of betting trends suggests Chicago to be the most likely victor.
Happy betting!!