Portland Trail Blazers @ San Antonio Spurs o206 -105
AT&T Center, San Antonio, Texas
December 30, 2016. 5:30PM PST
Our sim framework supports the OVER when the Blazers visit the Spurs this afternoon. In a meeting one week ago, Portland was held to a paltry 90 points on their home floor, with Lillard and McCollum posting well below average numbers and only one other Blazer managing a double-digit scoring contribution (for context, the Blazers are the sixth most prolific team in the League this season, averaging 108 points per contest). We expect a more spirited offensive effort from the Blazers this evening.
At 18-14, San Antonio has demonstrated a notable OVER bias this year (at 18-14, the Spurs' overall O/U suggests better than a 56% win rate for the OVER). The Texans' OVER is also 6-3 in San Antonio's last nine out. Additionally, the Spurs O/U is 15-10 after a win, 17-13 as the favorite, 9-5 at AT&T Center and 9-6 after a day off.
Portland's propensity toward the OVER is more pronounced as the Blazers O/U is 20-14 on the season, including an 8-5 stint coming off a winning effort, an 11-7 run on the road, 14-7 out following a rest day and a 14-10 stint facing Western Conference competition.
In addition to supportive indications from our computer simulation work and positive betting trends, we think an element of psychology also undergirds our OVER pick. Both Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum rank among the top 20 in scoring. Both were held to 16 points in the prior head-to-head meeting between these teams. We anticipate both players will be gunning to prove that last week's low scores were anomolous, and that LaMarcus Aldridge's defection to San Antonio does not doom Portland to mediocrity.
Happy betting!!