Milwaukee Bucks @ Toronto Raptors -7 (-105)
Air Canada Centre, Toronto Canada
April 15, 2017, 2:30PM PDT
Over the last five completed NBA playoffs, Tony Salinas' Zig-Zag Theory has notched a record of 23-17 handicapping the first game of the first round of (against-the-spread). In fact, the system's sole losing year over this span came in 2014, when home teams managed only two ATS wins in the first eight post-season match-ups.
Today, our computer simulation work is unequivocal in backing the Raptors to beat the Bucks by more than the seven required to register the cover. Thus, in advocating for Toronto to beat the betting line, as we are this afternoon, we highlight an instance where bigger picture environmental factors align with our game-specific forecast (the Zig-Zag Theory favors home teams in game 1's).
In addition to Salinas' framework though, head-to-head trends likewise favor the ATS home win this afternoon. For instance, Toronto has covered in ten of the last 14 meetings with Milwaukee, including in six of the eight games played on their home floor over this horizon.
Moreover, backing the Bucks has generally been a losing proposition this season, as Milwaukee has beat the line in a mere 36 of their regular season contests. Milwaukee was even worse on the road during the 2016-2017 season, covering 17 times in 41 away games. Conversely, Toronto finished the regular season with a 55% cover rate.
Bottom line: The Raptors -7 strikes us as the most compelling play of Saturday's NBA offering. The output from our computer simulation framework, Toronto's general proficiency versus the number (the Canadians were the fifth best bet in the League this year), the Raptor's very specific propensity for dominating Milwaukee as well as the broader backdrop, which favors the home cover from the present spot, all give us comfort laying the chalk and siding with the dinosaurs.
Happy betting!!