Washington Wizards @ Boston Celtics -5.0 (-105)
TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts
May 15, 2017, 5:00PM PST
Our sim work points to the home win and cover when the Wizards and Celtics get together for a winner-take-all contest to determine who advances to the 2017 NBA Eastern Conference Finals.
Supporting our simulation-based forecast, we note that top seeded teams generally do advance to the third round of the NBA playoffs. Specifically, over the ten seasons ending with the 2016 playoffs, top ranked teams have been featured in the Conference Finals 16 times out of 20 (or in 80% of all possible instances). And, two of the four occasions where the best teams fell short were influenced by the absence of key personnel. For instance, Russell Westbrook missed the entire 2013 playoff series versus the Grizzlies (the 64-win Thunder lost 4-2). Similarly, Derek Rose was only available for the first game of the Bulls 2012 matchup with the Sixers (the 50-16 Bulls likewise fell, 4 games to 2). Thus, absent injury, history suggests it would be highly unusual for the Celtics to lose outright to the Wizards tonight.
But, as sports bettors know all too well, the straight up win and the cover are two very different animals. However, in addition to the historically implied likelihood that Boston will advance, consider that the winning team has beat the number in roughly 77% of the 65 completed games in this year's playoffs (victors are 50-13-2 ATS). Thus, if the #1 team in the East is indeed to extend its playoff run, as has been most common outcome over the past decade, recent history implies that the Boston cover is also likely.
We also note the Celtics' propensity to play well coming off a loss (Boston is 19-13-1 ATS this year from this position).
Happy betting!!