Cleveland Cavaliers @ Golden State Warriors o225 -105 Oracle Arena, Oakland, California
Thursday, June 1, 6:00PM PST
The Cavs dispatched the Celtics in game 5 of the NBA Eastern Conference Finals Thursday night, earning the right to defend their title against the favorite, Golden State Warriors, in the Finals.
SportsInsights reports the Warriors opened as 7 point favorites for game 1 of the series, and the -265 series odds for Golden State offered by 5dimes implies a 72.6% chance of the West claiming the Larry O'Brien trophy at the ultimate conclusion of play.
Of note though, as of the time of this writing, 58% of public spread bets for game 1 back the Cavs, per SportsInsights. Consistent with the divide between bookmaker expectations (as conveyed by betting lines) and the collective perspective of the betting public, we do not, at present, have a strong view about who will cover in game 1, or win the series, for that matter. However, the OVER strikes us as a compelling play for the first installment of the series.
Recent betting trends for both teams seem consistent with this outlook. The Cavs O/U, for instance, is 9-4 since the playoffs commenced, while the Warriors are riding a five game over streak. Golden State's over is 9-3 so far this post-season.
We must concede though that the O/U for last ten meetings between these clubs is 3-6-1, indicating a clear bias in favor of the UNDER. We discount this observation, however, given the clear slippage in the Cavaliers' defense this year. Last season, for example, Cleveland boasted a top-ten seeding by points allowed and defensive efficiency. The Cavs rank 21st and 18th in these categories in this year's campaign.
Moreover, we think the coming series will see higher scoring than has been on display in recent head-to-head play, as both teams goosed their offenses for the current season. To wit, the Warriors' off-season addition of Kevin Durant has coincided with an additional three points per game (approximately) compared to 2015-2016, while the Cavs' big three (LeBron, Kyrie and Kevin Love) have each increased their average scoring output this year -- cumulatively, Cleveland musters seven extra points per contest, on average, versus last season (League-wide, scoring is up just over three points per game this year).
While premature, our preliminary sim work likewise highlights the OVER. We will continue to simulate game 1 in days to come, and expect this methodology to produce a higher conviction forecast closer to tip-off. Nonetheless, at present, we are comfortable betting on a higher than expected aggregate score for game 1.
Commonly, the total on Warriors games creeps higher from the open to close. There is already evidence of this phenomenon playing out for game 1, as many shops have moved the line up to 225.5. As such, inclined bettors might want to jump on the OVER sooner than later.
Happy betting!!