Daniel Cormier vs. Jon Jones -270
Honda Center, Anaheim, CA
July 29, 2017, 9:00PM Pacific
We looked at the recent history of rematches hosted by the UFC where one of the involved fighters was a belt holder at the time of the second contest. We narrowed this unwieldy universe by focusing solely on fighters with at least seven title defenses. 13 mixed martial artists meet this latter criteria, and our query produced a set of 29 bouts to consider. While admittedly small, our sample offers validation to the conventional wisdom that the winner of the first bout tends to prove superior in rematches. We observed that the original victor boasts a compelling record of 19-8-2 in do-overs. Clearly, this macro-based insight favors Jon Jones.
Consistent with this perspective, 5Dimes is pricing Jones at -270 as of the time of this writing, implying about a 73% probability of an outcome akin to that of UFC 182 two-and-a-half years ago. Interestingly, despite his being out of the octagon for 15 months, and extra-curricular activities that likely included rampant marijuana use, a hit-and-run conviction, 'recreational' cocaine use and maybe even sandblasting prostitutes, bookmakers are more biased in favor of the disgraced former champion than was the case before Jones' demons were exposed to the public in the wake of Cormier vs. Jones 1. Just ahead of Jones' and Cormier's initial meeting at UFC 182, Jones was priced at -170, implying about a 63% chance of a Jones win.
[OK, there is no evidence of Jones sandblasting prostitutes, as Cormier has suggested, and the recently incredibly forthright fighter has denied such allegations.]
We might rationalize Jones' increased favor among oddsmakers by considering that Cormier's primary weapon -- his world-class wrestling ability, was entirely neutralized in the 2015 bout (Cormier maneuvered Jones to the mat only once on eight attempts, while Jones took the wrestler down three times on only five shots).
In handicapping this fight, we weigh Jones' statistical advantages over Cormier in all significant offensive and defensive categories we monitor, including both takedowns and takedown defense, heavily.
Moreover, we regard Bones' streamlined physique as hinting at a total dedication to the craft. This element of pre-fight preparation may have been lacking in the past -- i.e. Jones bragged that his 2015 win over Cormier came on the heels of a weekend-long cocaine binge.
On the other hand, there is ample evidence that Jones has not come to terms with his demons. This contention is supported, for one, by the star's utterance of lines like, "I was an addict" (in connection with his marijuana intake). Such an outlook is contrary to most modern perspectives, which consider addiction manageable, but not necessarily curable. Many addicts who have not relapsed for extended periods concede that they are still addicts, and that their condition requires constant effort maintain a straight and narrow path.
Jones has also wavered publicly about the extent of his drug use. For instance, in a 2015 Bloody Elbow interview, Jones indicated that he "tried coke one night..." before the first fight with Cormier, but also insisted "I don't like coke. I'm not a coke guy." These words are a far cry from more recent commentary, which seems an attempt at justifying recreational drug use. Bleacher Report quoted the following from Jones in an interview for the lead up to UFC 214, "If you can afford to smoke a little weed, and do a little coke, and still win world titles, who's to tell you you can't?"
Drugs (especially cocaine) have been the undoing of many uber-talented athletes over the years (names like Dwight Gooden or even more tragically, Len Bias, spring to mind), and we are indeed concerned about the path Jon Jones, the man, might be pursuing. However, we have no reason to think that Jon Jones, the fighter, is any less prepared for combat tonight than was the case on January 3, 2015 -- after an admitted powder-fueled bender. As such, bettors inclined to take a position might consider backing the favorite in tonight's main event.
Bottom line: The statistical penchant for first fights to be indicative of the superior competitor, Jones' edges on offense and defense (and in the reach department), as well as the appearance that the champ-turned-challenger is mentally locked in, lead us to anticipate a Jones victory.
Happy betting!!