Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs -7 (-125)
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
October 30, 2017, 5:30PM Pacific
Our core, power rankings framework sees the Chiefs as 8-9 point favorites over the visiting Broncos this evening. As such, we are comfortable backing the home favorite to cover (as of the time of this writing, Bovada is offering the Chiefs -7.5 at EVEN; we paid up for the hook given that the home team by 7 is the most common outcome in professional football in recent history).
Consistent with our play, we note that the Chiefs covered in each of the last three meetings with the Broncos, and in four of the last six in head-to-head action. Moreover, Denver is one of only a handful of teams that have not beat the number on the road this season. The Mile High boys' struggles away from Sports Authority Field this year come on the heels of a 4-4 ATS out last season. Conversely, the Chiefs are 8-4 ATS at home since 2016.
And while the Broncos' defense currently ranks 4th overall by DVOA, their particular strength is stifling the run, not defending the pass (Denver boasts the best D in the League facing the rush, but ranks 17th versus the aerial attack). This observation is relevant because the Chiefs bread and butter has been Alex Smith's arm, rather than running back, Kareem Hunt's, legs.
Further, even though Kansas City's reliance on the run is below average (the Chiefs are 20th by rushing plays per game and 18th by rushing play percentage), their ground game is very efficient, as indicated both by their top ranking in yards gained per rush attempt, as well as by Hunt's seeding as the best running back in the business (as measured by Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement). Thus, we expect productivity from the Chiefs' running game roughly on par with the League average, despite the prowess of Denver's run stopping defense.
So far this season, the Broncos have proved, at best, mediocre with the ball (ranking 22nd in passing and 16th in rushing, by DVOA). As such, we do not expect an offensively prolific out from the Coloradans this evening -- even against the Chiefs' challenged defense Kansas City ranks 19th against the pass and 28th facing the run, by DVOA).
At the macro level, we note that the against-the-spread resurgence of favorites that started last week has carried over into week 8. After a 9-4-2 out last week, teams expected to win are 9-3 ATS so far this week, with teams favored by a touchdown or better collecting a record of 3-1 versus the betting line (based on closing spreads reported by Yahoo! Sports).
Also buttressing our pick, teams backed by better than 60% of spread wagers tracked by SportsInsights are 7-1 ATS in week 8, after a 4-2-1 showing a week earlier. As of the time of this writing, 68% of ATS bets support the Chiefs.
Happy betting!!