Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs u44 -110
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
January 6, 2018, 1:35PM Pacific
We favor the UNDER when the Titans and Chiefs kick off the 2017-18 NFL playoffs at Arrowhead Stadium this afternoon. In support of our view, we first point out the historical propensity for the UNDER to collect in the inaugural round of NFL playoff action. Since 1997, the UNDER is 48-32 in Wildcard action, good for a 60% win rate.
Further, we note that disappointing scores have materialized fairly consistently from this position. Per the chart above, the UNDER has cashed in at less than a 50% clip after only four of the last 20 Wildcard rounds. Conversely, there are 11 instances of cover rates greater than 50%. The average win rate for the UNDER for the last 20 years of Wilcard playoff games is 60%.
Moreover, after each instance of a sub-50% win rate for the UNDER, a rebound was evident the following year. Thus, if history is a guide, last year's 2-2 out implies UNDER bettors might expect at least three of today's contests to deliver tempered offensive output.
Per our second chart, temperatures are expected to climb no higher than 31°F in Kansas City this afternoon. Over the last 20 completed seasons, there have been 18 NFL Wildcard games played at this temperature or below. The UNDER is a solidly profitable 11-7 against this backdrop.
This observation syncs with the connection between inclement weather and reduced NFL scores postulated by various observers over the years (see here and here for examples). One finding of such studies is that completion percentages decline in notably cold conditions, compelling teams to lessen their dependence on the aerial assault in favor of an increased emphasis on the (generally lower yielding, clock chewing) ground game.
If this hypothesis plays out today, the Titans #7 rushing defense by DVOA might limit Chiefs' RB, Kareem Hunt's productivity. After all, while Hunt averaged 83 yds per contest during the regular season, this stat was padded at the expense of several very poor runs stopping teams (such as the Patriots #30, Chargers #27 (twice), Redskins #29, and Raiders #16). In KC's five run-ins with teams whose rush defense ranks above #16, Hunt managed 20 fewer yards per contest, on average.
For Tennessee, if weather does force this contest to center around running the ball, RB, DeMarco Murray's absence will likely depress the Titans output.
Separately, as is indicated in our final exhibit, the Chiefs rank in the bottom quartile by touchdowns per red zone appearance (not shown, the Titans are top-10 in holding teams to a field goal or less inside the Tennessee 20 yard line).
On the other hand, Tennessee has not been able to work their way into scoring position very often. The League average for the 2017 season is right about three red zone trips per contest. The Titans average of 2.5 times is good for 26th by this measure and might explain why Tennessee managed an anemic 17.5 PPG on the road this season.
Thus, as far as we can tell, the UNDER is well supported at both macro and micro degrees for today's meeting between the Titans and Chiefs.
Happy betting!!