Ahead of the game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals, we identified several betting flows based signals that have provided solid guidance for picking sides ATS throughout this year's NBA playoffs. This system correctly forecast the Cavaliers forcing game seven and covering the 6.5-7 point chalk Friday, but is also applicable to tonight's match-up between the Houston Rockets at the Golden State Warriors....perhaps...
No Place Like Home
Generally speaking, we observed an ATS bias in favor of home teams in this year post-season proceedings. Specifically, after last night's action, teams are 42-33 ATS (56%) playing in their own building.
The Adoring Public
Regarding betting flows, we noted that home teams backed by a majority of spread bets are also 56% versus the number (22-17). As of the time of this writing, the Warriors have garnered the support of 59% of spread wagers tracked by The Action Network (at between -10.5 and -12.5 points).
Further, when the percentage spread bets on the home team is greater than 50% AND the percentage of ATS dollars wagered is higher than the percentage of spread bets, home squads are a whopping 25-13 (66%).
Per The Action Network, as of the time of this writing, 64% of ATS dollars have flowed the home team's way.
Stretching the Rubber Band
In contrast to trends consistent with home covers (especially universally popular home teams), which suggest a Warriors ATS advantage Saturday, we noted previously that large home favorites have not fared well in the NBA playoffs in recent years.
So far this post-season, nine games have closed with double-digit spreads (the home team was favored in each instance). Underdogs are 5-4 ATS. The Warriors were involved in four of these contests. Golden State covered a below average 25% (1-3 ATS). In last year's playoffs the Warriors were 2-4 ATS when expected to win by 10 or more. Golden State was 2-2 ATS the year before and 2-5 the year prior (7-14 ATS from this spot under Steve Kerr).
Thus, there appear to be limits to the extent to which consensus is a trustworthy predictor of ATS outcome. At extremes (i.e. when betting lines are bid to 10 or greater), exuberance might exert undue influence on average bettors' decision-making, driving ATS flows toward the more popular team or better team SU. This thinking might be supported by the percentage of spread bets 3-5 ATS record this year in playoff games with lines of 10 or more.
The Drop Dead
But wait a a minute: while we have to acknowledge the Warriors' struggles as double-digit home favorites, and the failure of consensus to adjust to the difficulty of covering large numbers in the playoffs, we think the betting flows-based signal in Golden State's favor is probably right today. We note for instance that sharp money bets have been good at sniffing out which big favorites are for real in the 2018 Playoffs. Betting playoff favorites of 10 or better when the percentage of spread dollars is greater than the percentage bets is a 6-1 ATS strategy so far this year. The approach is 3-1 ATS when the percentage of spread bets is greater than 50%.
From a different angle, a prevailing expectation among presumably informed persons near the action seems to be that Houston is not willing to lay it all on the line this evening. This is to say that if the Warriors pull away (especially late), D'Antoni might concede victory in looking toward a game seven at home -- potentially with a full roster as well as a more rested superstar, rather than ride his crew to the final whistle, exacerbating fatigue and risking additional injury, in pursuit of an unlikely game six close out.
For the last three seasons, Golden State has boasted the best third quarter margin in the NBA. In spite of Houston's dominant overall position, the Warriors have owned the third in this series, besting the Rockets by an average 36 points per 100 possessions through the first four games. So separation later in the game is a distinct possibility at Golden State's Oracle Arena today.
At the end of the day, we are biting the bullet and laying the big chalk, right along with the sharps, the squares and everyone in between...Warriors -12
Happy betting!!