Minnesota Vikings @ LA Rams
LA Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA
September 27, 2018, 5:20PM PDT
Minnesota travels West to kick off week 4 of NFL action at the Los Angeles Rams Thursday. LA is firing on all cylinders so far this season, as is indicated by their 3-0 ATS/SU record. The Rams average margin of victory is an astounding 22 points per game, and their average cover margin is approaching an equally ridiculous 13 PPG.
Conversely, Minnesota is 1-2 ATS and 1-1-1 SU, after taking a spanking at the hands of the Buffalo Bills in week 3 (despite coming into that contest as 16.5 point favorites). The Vikings sport an average margin of victory of worse than -4, and have been almost as bad versus the number as the Rams have been good (through three games, the Vikings have missed the spread by an average of 12.5 points). This disappointing showing resulted in Minnesota's slipping by two points above average in our power rankings composite through the end of week 3, compared to start of the season levels.
However, we see scope for the Vikings to right the ship Thursday, against the spread, anyway. To be clear, our power rankings composite IS NOT indicating a play on Minnesota, so this is not an official pick, however, we have observed empirical evidence that would tilt us the road team's direction if we HAD to take a side.
For one, our friends at BetLabs Sports observed last year that unloved underdogs coming off disappointing offensive performances have been solid betting plays, amassing a 58% cover rate since 2003.
Also, since 2003, teams that lost outright as double-digit favorites have proven quite reliable covers in their next game. Squads in this position boast a similar 58% ATS win rate.
The case for last week's big favorites coming off a disappointment is even more compelling when considering only teams on the road. The record for this cohort is 16-8-1 ATS (67%).
Moreover, since assuming the role of head coach for Minnesota, Mike Zimmer has been golden against the spread taking points on the road. Zimmer's 63% win rate from this position is not far behind that of the great Bill Belichick over the entirety of his stint in New England.
Bottom Line: The football community appears to have become infatuated with the Rams, on teh back of their lights-out performance through the first three weeks of NFL action. To this point, before the season kicked off, LA's odds to hoist the Lombardi Trophy next February were reported at somewhere around +1000 (or a about 9% probability). After week three though, the line has tightened to +400, more than doubling the implied probability of the Rams winning the championship (to 20%). In fact, Jared Goff and crew have ascended to the position of hands-on favorite to go all the way (the Pats are second on this list, with a +800 season price, or 11% implied probability.
But, while these Rams are clearly no sheep, this appears a tough spot for the home cover. We think the tandem of the Rams exceptional play over the past three weeks plus the Vikings stunning defeat versus the Bills might have emboldened bookmakers to shade the line the Rams way a tad. Further, after last week's embarrassment, we expect the Vikings will play like a team set on redemption, fueled in part by the guidance of one of the League's best coaches.
More fundamentally, Minnesota's top-tier defense should pose more of an obstacle to Goff's aerial attack and Todd Gurley, III's running game than LA has seen to date (the Rams have not faced a top-ten pass defense yet this season, and Gurley averaged a meager 2.2 yards per attempt against the Cardinals 11th-ranked rush defense -- albeit with 3 rushing TDs). And, the Rams' terrible rush defense leaves the window open (even for a poor running team like the Vikings) for a closer game than many spectators anticipate.
Leaning toward the Vikings plus the 7 points.
Happy betting!!