We spun our wheels last week, notching a rather forgettable record of 2-2-1 ATS on our official picks for week 4 (see here, here and here for details). We are now 11-7-1 ATS (61%) on the season.
For the fifth Sunday of the 2018-19 NFL season, our power rankings work generated eight plays. We eliminated two summarily, as our computer simulation work argued strongly for the opposite outcome. All picks are shown below.
This weeks' focus matchups hone in on a mere two games from the previous graphic. Again, our objective is to highlight the picks generated by our power rankings framework that are best supported by context and history (i.e. have the best chance at cashing in). We detail below our favorite NFL bets for the day, and our rationale.
Happy betting!!
Featured Week 5 Games:
Tennessee Titans @ Buffalo Bills
Denver Broncos @ New York Jets
Tennessee Titans @ Buffalo Bills +6.0 (-110)
Buffalo got blanked in Green Bay last week, losing by 22, as 8.5 point underdogs. At the same time, some 700 miles away, Tennessee marred Carson Wentz's return by beating Philly by a field goal from the position of three-point home, dogs. As a result of these events, as of the time of this writing, close to two of out every three ATS bets tracked by The Action Network are backing the Titans in week 5. Consistent with the public's conviction, the betting line is up significantly from its initial level of Tennessee -3.5. A representative from Bookmaker.eu reportedly confirmed six-figure action on the Titans at -3.5 and again at -4. The line movement that followed was in "deference" to this action from a "respected player".
Our power rankings composite makes the to be Bills somewhere between three-point underdogs and one-point favorites at New Era Field in Orchard Park, NY Sunday. So, despite the news of Bookmaker's singular sharp getting down heavy on Tennessee, we see value with the home, dogs. Further, we note that while 60% of spread wagers are in on the favorites, about half of the dollars laid on spread bets are backing the Bills.
The figures regarding the percent of wagers and the percent of spread dollars wagered matter as fading the public has been exceptionally profitable so far this season. The strategy sputtered a bit last week, notching a record of 7-7-1, however, on the year, backing teams against the spread that garnered the support of less than half of ATS wagers is 38-24-1 (61%). Further, taking teams with less than 50% of bets (by number) when the percent of dollars wagered is at least 50% has delivered a whopping 44% ROI so far this year.
Additionally, we noted the efficacy last week of siding with home, dogs coming off horrendous offensive showings and that are unloved by the betting public (in fact, we cited this very trend to support our play on Tennessee to cover at Philly -- sorry Titans fans, the same thing that makes you laugh can sometimes make you cry). Anyway, this system is 104-73-5 since 2003, and has proved remarkably consistently profitable over the years, including a 3-1 ATS showing so far this season.
Denver Broncos @ New York Jets +1 (-105)
Our power rankings work expects a narrow (1-2 point) win for the Jets when the Broncos come calling Sunday morning. As such, we regard home team plus a point as an attractive proposition.
Supporting our forecast, consider that since Vance Joseph assumed the reigns as Head Coach for Denver last year, the Broncos have been atrocious on the road. Per data from Pro Football Reference, Denver has covered only once away from Mile High Stadium since this personnel change was effected (in the two years prior, the Bronco's 10-14 ATS away record suggests that Denver was just bad in away games, but not terrible before Joseph hit the scene).
Meanwhile, since 2015, the Jets are 15-10 ATS when surrounded by the familiarity of their own MetLife Stadium, and 10-4 ATS as home, dogs over this span.
Additionally, we have observed previously that teams taking points at home, coming off three games skids, and that are shunned by the betting public tend to be solid plays against the spread. Since 2003, backing such teams has amassed an ROI of better than 24%. After cashing in on the Cardinals +3.5 last week, this system is on a seven game cover streak.
The homeboys have attracted the backing of only 34% of ATS wagers at present, however, 40% of spread dollars are on New York.