Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins
Hard Rock Stadium Miami Gardens, Florida
October 7, 2018, 10:00 AM PDT
Foremost, we must state that our power rankings composite IS NOT issuing a play signal on the Fins, so the following does not constitute an official pick. In fact, on average, our primary framework makes the Bengals to be almost exactly six points better than their hosts Sunday, suggesting the line might be priced to perfection. However, we note several historical tendencies that would tilt us Miami's direction is we had to pick a side here.
First, we note that NFL teams tend to cover in the out after a blowout loss. Specifically, since 2003, teams off a loss by three touchdowns or more are, historically, a profitable bet. The cover rate holds essentially constant for visiting teams, receiving points in this situation (132-111-5 ATS).
Further, poor teams that are popular among public bettors after a hot start in a new season have proven fade-able in the first half of the year, per The Action Network's John Ewing. In games 1-8, betting against teams (ATS) that missed the last playoffs, are favored to win and are supported by more than half of spread bets has been good for a 10% ROI since 2003.
Much to our chagrin, the Dolphins got absolutely wallopped last week versus the Patriots, suffering their first ATS/SU loss f the season. However, that outcome might have been more a statement about what New England (still) is, rather than what Miami is not. The Pats came into week 4 having dropped their last two, a rarity indeed in the Tom Brady-era. A dominant out was needed to quiet the rising chorus of pundits suggesting the juggernaut Pats might finally be on the decline. But, given the Patriots' dominance over the years, such an ending might have materialized at the expense of any team facing a New England squad with their backs against the wall.
We think it much less likely that the Bengals rout the Fins today. The previous chart illustrates that in recent years, the Patriots have stood head and shoulders above the likes of the Bengals and Dolphins, per The Football Outsiders Total DVOA statistic. On the other hand, Cincinnati's and Miami's ebbs and flows have been rather synchronous. As such, we expect today's contest to be a much more competitive affair.
Happy betting!!