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Washington Wizards +5 (-115) @ Portland Trail Blazers
Our primary framework expects a tight game when the Wizards visit the Blazers this evening. In fact, our forecasts call for this contest to be decided by less than a single bucket--in practice this probably means the game could go either way as far as the straight up winner goes, but this view also implies significant value with the road team plus the points.
Adding to our confidence in the Wiz versus the number tonight, we note that solid teams that start a new season with a whimper have been profitable plays. Since 2004, NBA teams that made the playoffs the prior season and are underdogs in their next game (after losing between one and four in a row ATS) have covered at a 53% clip.
Further, siding with teams (like the Blazers) that won their last two straight up at home before hosting a team that lost back to back games has been a losing proposition. Fading such teams though has amassed a 13% ROI since 2004.
Happy betting!!