- Photo credit: Kevin Kuo, AP
Denver Nuggets @ LA Lakers u237.5 -105
Per our computer simulation routines, the final total is likely to fall into the 223-234 range when the action concludes at the Lakers' Staples Center this evening. As such, we are fading one of the highest betting totals of the young NBA season.
Of note, tonight's home team has indeed been associated with the beefier O/U lines this year. This past Saturday's romp versus Houston, for instance, closed at 237.5--tied for the second-highest total of the season. The biggest over/under was Wednesday night's LakeShow at the Suns contest, which landed on 238.5.
Also of significance (perhaps of historical significance, in fact), the Lakers have been covering these bloated lines. LA's OVER is 4-0 entering their fifth game of the year; since 2004, only 11 teams have opened a season on such an offensive tear.
Season to date record on published ATS & O/U picks: 6-5
However, we agree with our sim output that the UNDER deserves consideration from the present spot, as we expect Denver's premier defense to limit LA's offensive opportunities. At 98.4, the Nuggets allow the fewest points per 100 possession in the League, and rank among the top-ten in opponents' effective field goal percentage, defensive rebounding and opponents' turnover percentage.
To support our thesis that elite defense can stifle OVER-prone teams, we turned to BetLabsSports database and found that when road teams allowing less than 103 points per 100 possessions match up against home teams that score at least 113 points per 100 possessions, the UNDER has been quite profitable, delivering an ROI of 23% since 2004.
Further, even when the high-scoring, homeboys feature bad defenses (i.e. allow more than 113 points per 100 possessions), as do the Lakers, the UNDER's profitability persists (7-3 from this position, for a 38% ROI).
From a slightly different angle, we also observed that, more times than not, bad teams take a pause after four consecutive barn burners. The UNDER is 88-71 (55% cover rate, 8% ROI) in games featuring a team on a four-game OVER streak with a SU win rate of 40% of less. The hit rate and ROI improve when focusing only on games played in the first half of the season.
Per The Action Network, as of the time of this writing, 63% of total bets are down on the UNDER, but only 51% of O/U dollars are backing a lower than expected aggregate score. In spite of the more-or-less even dollar split though, the line is well off its initial level of 239. Inclined bettors might want to jump on the UNDER sooner than later.
Happy betting!!