San Antonio Spurs -6 -105 @ Phoenix Suns
We identify here another combination of what appears to be a favorable set of circumstances for one side, and a difficult situation for the other. For reasons listed below, we are siding with the Spurs versus the number at the Suns.
Tonight's contest looks like a great spot for the San Antonio, as road favorites that made a playoff appearance last season and that are coming off a three-game home stint have been good for a 12% ROI since 2005.
Of significance, the historical cover rate under this scenario is virtually unchanged when examining only the first 20 games of each season (35-26, 58%).
Or, when the quality road favorite off a home stand faces a team that did not make the last playoffs, the system is 91-63-3 ATS (59%) for a 16% ROI (24-14 ATS over the first quarter of each season).
This system is also 6-1 ATS facing teams on a five game losing streak.
One more...when a prior playoff team won the last two out of three at home and is then favored on the road, the historical record improves to 23-12-1 ATS (66%).
Thus, we find the present situation to be fairly robust support for the Spurs' cause versus the number tonight.
Meanwhile, the Suns are 1-5 SU after dropping five in a row, including, most recently, a loss at Oklahoma City Sunday in which Phoenix did manage to cover the +11.5. As equal validation to our thinking, history suggests circumstances have aligned to create a tough position for the boys in the desert tonight.
Since 2005, a cover at the tail-end of a five game (SU) losing streak has been a pretty good indicator to fade teams receiving points at home.
The system is 23-18 ATS (56%) when the home team did not make the prior playoffs and 10-3 ATS (77%) counting only the first 20 games of each season. As such, we regard this finding as likewise robust support for the Spurs cover.
Happy betting!!