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Tennessee Titans @ Dallas Cowboys -4 (-120)
Our power rankings composite expects the Boys to prove 5-6 points superior to the Titans at AT&T Stadium Monday evening. Contextual evidence at our disposal validates the output from our primary NFL handicapping model. Thus, we are laying the 4 points and backing the home favorites Monday.
In support of our view, consider that home favorites off BYEs have been profitable bets, generating a 7% ROI since 2003.
Of particular relevance here, of the 22 instances since 2003 when opposing teams have both enjoyed 11-15 days off, the home favorite covered 59% of the time, for a 16% ROI.
Generally speaking, underdogs off BYEs have not fared as well historically. And in particular, underdogs that covered only one of the three games leading up to a week off have beat the number in their first game back only 38% of the time since 2003.
From a different angle, through seven games the Titans boast an average scoring margin of -3 points per game. On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys average margin is 2.4 points per contest.
In situation where road dogs with seven-game margins of -3 ±2 face opposition with a seven contest margin of 2.5 ±2.5, the team better team by this measure has delivered a 20% ROI since 2003.
Happy betting!!