Pittsburgh Steelers @ Jacksonville Jaguars +6 (-110)
Pittsburgh absolutely undressed the Panthers in week 10's edition of Thursday Night Football. The Steelers were able to keep Cam Newton and Carolina's top-ten offense in check and find the end zone a staggering seven times (Pittsburgh would post a 51 points in all, and win by 31).
As the following pass plot from ESPN illustrates , Ben Roethlisberger could do no wrong last week, amassing 328 yards and five passing TDs on a mere 25 attempts (the Steelers also registered a rushing touchdown and a defensive score). Big Ben's effort landed the 15th year future hall-of-famer atop the week 10 QB rankings list by Total QBR.
We think Roethlisberger's and the Steeler's superb performance last week represents a solid spot to fade the Black and Yellow. Our guiding hypothesis is that euphoria after a big win engenders undue levels of support among the betting public for the hot team, ultimately resulting in exaggerated betting lines and value with the opposition.
Consistent with this thinking, we note that our power rankings composite makes a traveling Steelers unit to be about five points better than the Jags this week, implying about a point of value with Jacksonville.
Further validating our perspective, per data from BetLabsSports, it has indeed been profitable to bet against elite teams (i.e. those with win rates of 75% or better) hitting the road after a home win by at least three touchdowns. Fading teams in this position has generated a 14% ROI since 2003 and is 2-1 ATS so far this year.
Additionally, we note that backing ATS losers against teams with winning records versus the number has generated strong returns from week six forward (including a 7-1 ATS run so far this season).
Thus, on the basis of the signal from our power rankings composite and the supportive historical context, we are comfortable taking the two field goals and backing the lowly home dogs.
Happy betting!!