Minnesota Vikings +3 (-135) @ Chicago Bears
After knocking off the Detroit Lions last week, Chicago will enter Sunday's NFC North showdown versus the Vikings on a three-game SU/ATS win streak and with a respectable 6-3 SU/ATS record overall--a marked improvement from Chicago's 14-34 SU (23-24 ATS) combined record over the previous three seasons.
We are not believers in the Bears' turnaround story at present, and we are happy to fade Chicago's recent run. Our play on Minnesota is supported by contextual evidence as well as indications from our power rankings composite.
First, historically bettors have been rewarded for wagering against home teams with a win rate of at least 60%, that are favored by less than touchdown, and that are facing opposition from their division.
Further, as of the time of this writing, a majority 63% of spread bets tracked by The Action Network back the Vikings. Consensus has proven prescient during the period we regard as the belly of the season, especially when supporting the away team.
Finally, our primary NFL handicapping tool, our power rankings composite model, suggests the Bears edge at home Sunday will be a tad less than a field goal, hinting at value with the road dogs plus the three. For all these reasons, we are betting on Minnesota to secure the cover Sunday.
Happy betting!!