- Photo credit: Brad Mills, USA TODAY Sports
New Orleans Pelicans -1 (-105) @ Washington Wizards
The Pelicans' season so far might best be described as up-and-down. Out the gate, New Orleans delivered a beat-down to the Houston Rockets, before rattling off another three straight. Anthony Davis missed three of the following four games though, kicking off a downward spiral in which the Pels dropped six in a row. New Orleans then won six of their next seven, before losing their most recent two. The outcome of this stomach-churning roller coaster is a 10-9 SU record as the first quarter of the season draws to a close.
Our computer sim framework anticipates a fairly tight game between the Pelicans and Wizards this evening, but sees New Orleans leaving Capital One Arena with the win and cover. Closing out this difficult road trip from the position of short favorites against a slumping Washington squad is helpful to the Pelicans' cause, as history hints that such circumstances have proven favorable for the bounce-back road cover. We are betting accordingly.
Season-to-date record on published
ATS & O/U picks: 17-13-1 (57%)
Consistent with our computer simulation-based forecast supporting the Pelicans we cite the following big picture historical trends:
Favorites with winning records, on the third game of unfruitful road trips have covered at a 61% clip since 2005, delivering a return on investment of 18% (on an ATS record of 33-21-3).
This system has proven profitable early in the NBA season, as indicated by a 5-1 ATS record through the first 21 games of each season.
In contrast to New Orleans up-and-down season so far, Washington's year has been mostly just down. The Wizards lost eight of their first ten games and are a meager 4-4 SU since (including 1-3 in their last four out). While arguably, the more stable results delivered over the last couple of weeks hint that the ship is being righted in Washington, a different system on our radar (also with proven long-term track record) recommends fading the Wizards here:
Home dogs that made the playoffs last year but that have won no more than 34% of their of this year's action, and that have dropped at least three of their most recent five out have only managed to cover 45% of the time since 2005.
Betting against such situations has yielded an 8% ROI.
The system is also profitable during the season's early going, delivering positive ROI, in aggregate, over the first quarter and first half of each season.
Happy betting!!