Home Spread: New York Jets +11, Total: 46.5
Foremost, we are not officially playing either side of this game ATS, as our power rankings composite is on the fence for this one. With that said though, we note a few interesting observations that would probably be instructive if we were inclined to back either the Pats or Jets versus the number.
First, laying the double-digit chalk, in general, is a tough proposition in NFL action, so our natural inclination is to take rather than to lay the points.
Since 2003, teams getting at least ten points are 263-231-11 ATS (53%)...
OK, the advantage to underdogs has not been stellar, however, it has been sufficient to turn some level of profit after the bookie's nut. But it gets better:
The cover rate improves to 59% (45-31 ATS) when the big dog is the home team.
This 59% win rate holds steady when considering only situations where the road team is giving at least a touchdown plus a field goal to divisional opposition.
I can hear the push-back already, 'But surely the Patriots are the exception, right? Could these generalizations possibly apply to a team as uniquely talented as the New England Patriots?...'
Evidence suggests that even the majesty of the Belichick Brady tandem is vulnerable to historical tendencies—at least these tendencies, anyway.
Since 2003, the Patriots have been cast as big road favorite 14 times and are 6-8 ATS from this spot.
New England has laid at least ten to a division foe eight times over this span and has a 3-5 ATS record to show for it.
Separately, it has also been profitable (this season and longer-term) to back bad teams ATS to cover against good teams ATS.
After week 5, teams that have covered 40% or less of their games have been solid bets facing teams that beat the number in at least 60% of their games.
Thus, if we had to pick a side against-the-spread, we would take the Jets and the points...maybe close to kickoff, as the throng of public support for New England might pressure the line higher still (85% of bet tickets tracked by The Action Network are backing the Pats in this most bet game of the NFL Sunday lineup; as a result, the line is a half-point wider than its opening level of -10.5).
We have also observed solid indications for a total play.
Since 2004 the UNDER is 116-81-5 ATS in games between divisional opposition with a spread of at least ten.
The UNDER is 22-10 (69%) ATS since 2004 when the road team is laying double-digits to a team from the same division.
Bottom line: For the reasons outlined herein, with a pistol to our head, the Jets +11 and UNDER 46.5 would be our plays. However, we are passing (at least, officially), as we did not get the requisite triggers, in the form of signals from our power rankings composite model and/or computer simulation routines.
Happy betting!!