New England Patriots @ LA Rams
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta GA
February 3, 2019, 3:30 PM PDT
The Gist...
Our primary NFL handicapping framework makes the Rams and Pats to be virtually evenly-matched heading into the finale of the 2018-19 season. As such, we are backing LA plus the key 3 figure (or better) in Superbowl 53.
The Spread & the Public...
Consistent with our thinking, the betting line indeed opened last Tuesday as a PICK at most shops. However, significant action on New England seemingly instantaneously drove the number to the present Pats -2.5.
Analysts at The Action Network have observed that big shifts in the betting line have been prescient predictors of Superbowl outcomes historically. Of the 16 instances when the Superbowl spread changed by at least 1.5 points from open to close, the recipient of the favorable line movement is 14-2 SU and 12-4 ATS.
Of note though, this tendency has not benefited Brady and the Pats. Per teh table to the right, New England has been involved in three Superbowls with volatile betting spreads since Brady was drafted (the line moved the Pats way each time). The Patriots only beat the number in one of those instances, losing the other two games outright.
As of the time of this writing, 78% of spread bets are behind Brady, Belichick and the crew. This is probably not surprising to most, as playoff darling is a rather familiar position for the Patriots. Of New England's 36 playoffs games with Tom Brady under Center, the Pats garnered the support of more than half of public bet 22 times (61%).
Of interest, in sharp contrast to regular season play throughout Brady's career, the Patriots have been merely ho-hum against-the-spread in the post-season. The chart below was constructed based on data from BetLabsSports.com. It illustrates that, in general, as the betting public increasingly bought into the idea of Pats' covers during the regular season, the more elusive the ATS win proved to be. However, even when public sentiment reach downright froth during the regular season (i.e. when more than 70% of bets were down on the Pats versus the number), The Brady Bunch still delivered 60% of the time.
Contrarily, in the post-season, the Tom Brady Patriots are a meager 18-18 ATS overall, and have pretty consistently covered at a 50% rate at various ranges of public support.
This is all to say that fading the Patriots in the playoffs has not been nearly as ridiculous a proposition as has been true during the first 17 weeks of the NFL season.
Big Picture Betting Trends...
Also consistent with our power rankings work highlighting value with Los Angeles and the points Sunday, we note that since 1995 Superbowl favorites are a lowly 6-14-2 ATS.
Further, covering the chalk at the big dance has proven difficult even for the G.O.A.T.. The Patriots are 1-5 ATS against the betting line from this position during the Tom Brady era.
The Fundamentals...
Setting aside our perception of value with the Rams as well as the aforementioned betting trends that corroborate our outlook, we note that the Rams enjoy a glaring advantage over the Patriots running the ball. Per FootballOutsiders DVOA stat, the Rams offense is the best in the business on the ground, thanks to one Mr. Todd Gurley II, THE premier running back in the game per FootballOutsiders' DYAR (and by a comfortable margin). As a result of Gurley's contributions, LA's rushing offense finished the regular season 22% better than average, by DVOA.
On the other hand, the Pats rush defense ended the season ranked 19th.
DVOA lends itself to the precise quantification of this mismatch: comparing the Rams's rushing DVOA (22%) + the Pats DVOA for rush defense (-7%) to the Pats' ground game DVOA (2.5%) + LA's DVOA against the run (+1.5%) suggests the Rams should run the ball 15% better than average Sunday, while New England's DVOA-implied capability on the ground is 4% better than average.
Thus the Ram's have the upper hand in this facet of the game, to the tune of an 11% above average edge.
Separately, both teams' aerial attacks ranked among the top-five in the League during the regular season, However, DVOA gives LA a slight edge on paper throwing the ball (37.2% vs. 33.1%). We are inclined to discount this modest differential though, given TB12's vast big game experience and exposure to every virtually every scheme a defensive coordinator might conjure up.
Further, these teams are pretty evenly matched on special teams too, per DVOA. The Patriots finished the regular season ranked 17th and the Rams 18th by this measure, with a mere three-tenths of a percentage point separating the two units.
Both squads are also top-ten at forcing more turnovers than they commit.
Thus, with only nominal differences between the defense-adjusted passing games and negligible deltas between these teams' special teams units and turnover margins, the differentiator Sunday might be Todd Gurley's abilities on the turf--the numbers suggest the gap is significant in LA's favor.
Bottom Line...
Given our power rankings framework's indications of value with the Rams, Brady's uninspiring against-the-spread track record in post-season play, the historical difficulties favorites have encountered covering the Superbowl chalk and LA's clear advantage running the ball, we are lining up squarely with the Rams +3 Sunday (available at Bovada, but juiced up to -120).
Happy betting!!