Quality home favorites...
In Part 1 of our examination of trends evident just after the resumption of NBA action following the allstar break, we highlighted the profitability of fading good teams laying chalk at home, citing the 14% return on investment (ROI) delivered by this system since 2005.
To explain this bias, we theorize that the casual, exhibition game-like attitude that commonly attends allstar weekend ceremonies bleeds over into the first game after the break for teams still at home.
We identified three specific plays for Thursday that fit the criteria for this system, and the Heat, Celtics and Kings all covered fairly easily (by an average margin of better than six points). Thus our 'Post all-star break hangover...' system is perfect to start the season.
Plays on three games were triggered for Friday:
New Orleans Pelicans +5.5 @ Indiana
The Pelicans have owned the Pacers in head-to-head action of late (against-the-spread, that is). New Orleans has covered each of the last six meetings over the last three years.
San Antonio Spurs +6.5 @ Toronto
Similarly, San Antonio has beat the number in each of the last five meetings with Toronto. Also aiding the Spurs' effort Friday, the Raptors have been unfriendly to bettors this year, generally speaking. Toronto is 25-33-1 ATS overall, including a 13-16 ATS stint as home favorites, and a 9-12-1 ATS run versus the West.
Utah Jazz +3.5 @ Oklahoma City
At odds with this system, back to last year's playoffs, the Thunder have covered the last four facing the Jazz. OKC is also 15-11 ATS laying points at Chesapeake Energy Arena.
Rested road favorites...
Our research also found that road favorites have exhibited a profitable edge in the game just after allstar weekend.
The two Thursday games featuring road favorites that we indicated in Part 1 split, with Houston blowing a fast start and giving up the cover later, and Portland finishing strong to secure the ATS win.
This system highlights several Friday games:
Detroit Pistons -2.5 @ Atlanta
The Pistons are 9-17 ATS on the road this season, but 16-5 laying points. Detroit is 4-0 versus the number as away favorites.
On the other side if the ball, the Hawks are 19-39 ATS overall so far this year, so there is not a spot where Atlanta is proficient, from a betting perspective. The Hawks boast an 18-36 ATS record taking points, and are 9-17 versus the number at home.
Minnesota Timberwolves -6 @ New York
The Timberwolves are a marginal 4-5 ATS this season as road favorites, but fortunately for Minnesota backers, the Knicks are a dreadful 7-12-2 ATS receiving points in the Garden.
Also, in the Wolves favor, we note that this system is particularly profitable when the road favorite is made an appearance in last year's playoffs.
LA Clippers -1.5 @ Memphis
The Grizz are a serviceable 6-5 ATS as home dogs, however the Clippers are a blistering 7-3 ATS as away favorites.
Denver Nuggets -3.5 @ Dallas
The Nuggets have struggled to cover the number while traveling this year (10-18), and have had an even tougher time when favored on the road (4-11 ATS).
Meanwhile, at 20-9 ATS, the Mavs have been lights out this year at home, and, quite remarkably, at 10-2 ATS, Dallas has been even better as an underdog at home.
Happy betting!!