Photo: Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images
Milwaukee Bucks -7 @ Chicago Bulls
United Center, Chicago, Illinois
February 25, 2019, 5:00 PM PDT
Good NBA teams tend to cover on the road facing bad teams late in the regular season. The strategy of backing squads with 65%+ SU win rates to beat the number at teams with no better than 35% SU win rates during the last third of the season has been good for a 14% return on investment since 2005. This system is 2-1 ATS so far this season.
The Bucks -7 Monday fits the bill for this strategy, and we are backing the deer. In addition to being favored by this setup, we also note that Milwaukee is the second-best team in the League ATS, and is 13-8-2 ATS laying chalk on the road. Chicago, on the other hand, is 27-31-2 ATS overall, including an 11-15 stint as home dog.
Our computer simulation work likewise endorses the road cover this afternoon.
[Note: the betting line dropped four points, from the opening level of around 11 to 7 on news Giannis Antetokounmpo is listed on the injury report as doubtful; we remain committed.]
Happy betting!!