Denver Nuggets @ Boston Celtics -3
TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts
March 18, 2019, 4:30PM PDT
The two NBA bets we detailed on March 16 were predicated on a system of fading good teams off the narrowiest of wins. The underlyng rationale for this approach is that the rigourous NBA schedule does not afford teams time to recuperate after the being physically and mentally pressed to close to the limit in their previous outing.
One of the wagers we prescribed in our Saturday note backed the Pacers at Denver, as the Nuggets were coming off a near loss to Dallas two nights earlier. Per the chart below, Denver fell 17 points behind Indiana by about midway through the second quarter. The Nuggets would then embark on a tremedous run over the following 24 minutes, turning the tide dramatically in their favor. However, even after finally securing a comfortable (double-digit) lead, the gamely Pacers fought valiantly in the last six minutes of play to shrink to the deficit to a single point by the time the final buzzer sounded.
Denver dodged a bullet and (barely) collected the straight up win over the Pacers two days ago, however, the outcome of that contest triggered a play on the Celts when the Nuggets come calling Monday.
Per data from BetLabsSports.com, since 2005 teams with win rates of 65% or higher have covered at only a 45% clip versus non-divisional opposition, after winning their prior contest by four points or less. The graphic below illustrates outcomes accruing to fading this situation in the last third of each NBA season since 2005. Clearly, the system's profitability persists over this slice of the data.
Happy betting!!