Nuggets -11 @ Knicks
Clippers -6 @ Cavaliers
Our friends at the Action Network developed a system predicated on fading bad home dogs over the last third of the NBA season when they face playoff contenders. The underlying rationale for this theory is that the worst teams in the League are incented (in the form of an increased probability of landing the number 1 draft pick) to finish with among the worst win-loss records. This realization might inspire teams to submit less than the utmost effort late in the year, as this bottom-of-the-barrel cohort competes (by not competing) for the top choice in the draft lottery.
However, we note that bad teams are not exactly cooperating this year. In fact the worst teams in the NBA have been quite profitable ATS since All-Star Break, submitting a 54-45 ATS showing.
We refined the criteria for the Action Network's system to focus on the very last leg of the regular season (games 72-82, rather than 55-82). We found that the profitability increased modestly, to an ROI of 13% on a 58% cover rate. The amended system is 3-1 ATS so far this year.
Two Friday games meet the Fade Tanking Teams criteria:
Nuggets -11 @ Knicks
Clippers -6 @ Cavaliers
We like the Nuggets at the Knicks because New York is one of few terrible teams this year that is performing as expected. The Knicks are 5-9 ATS since the break and 2-3 ATS in their last five out. New York has also dropped four of their last six versus the number when receiving at least ten points.
More broadly, this year the Knicks are 21-34-2 ATS off a loss, 12-20-2 ATS at Madison Square Garden and 26-34-3 as an underdog.
On the other hand, the Nuggets are 26-21 ATS after a straight up win, 14-12 ATS facing the East and 7-3 ATS laying double-digits. However, Denver is only 14-20 ATS on the road.
We like the Clippers because, generally speaking, bad home dogs have proven especially vulnerable coming off a win, as the Cavs are. Since 2005, home dogs that won their last out but have a season-to-date win rate of less than 40% are only 70-101-2 ATS.
We also note that the Clippers are excellent against the spread this year, ranking #3 overall with a 57% cover rate. LA is the 4th best team in the NBA (ATS) this season on the road, and 2nd when favored to win.
However, per the previous table, Cleveland has been terrifically friendly to bettors since the All-Star Break.
Happy betting!!