Washington -1.5 @ Phoenix
Talking Stick Resort Arena, Phoenix
March 28, 2019, 7:00PM PDT
We are taking the Wizards to cover in the desert Wednesday. Supporting our pick, we note the historical penchant for home dogs to struggle versus the number late in the NBA season. Specifically, since 2005, teams taking points in their own building in games 72 through 82 are 300-378-10 ATS. Fading squads in this position has been good for an 8% return on investment (ROI).
This system fares even better when the involved teams are from opposing conferences, delivering a 14% ROI under this condition. The revised approach is 8-4 ATS this year.
We noted in our March 22nd note that, contrary to the historical norm, the worst teams in the League have been quite profitable bets lately when receiving points at home. As of that point in time, the bottom seven NBA teams had rattled off a 55-45 ATS run since the all-star break (though the Cavs and Hawks 21-8 record against the betting line accounts for much of this success).
These same bottom-rung teams are 8-8 ATS since, hinting that, save a couple of exceptions, normalization might be in the offing. The new-look Grizzlies and Trae Young-led Hawks alone have done the heavy lifting for the bottom of the barrel cohort over the last few days. These two teams are 4-1 ATS in their last five games combined. Phoenix, on the other hand, is a much less menacing 11-10 versus the number since the break.
Back Washington to cover the chalk.
Happy betting!!