Toronto Raptors -11 @ NY Knicks
Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
March 28, 2019, 4:30PM PDT
We have noted, as recently as yesterday, that bad teams tend to struggle versus the spread at home over the last leg of the NBA season. Per the graphic below, since 2005, teams with an aggregate win rate of no better than 30% have been great fades late in the season when taking points at home. Betting against such situations has been good for a 10% return on investment (ROI) over this term.
This system compelled us to back the Wizards to break their five-game losing streak at the Suns Wednesday, and now, in the latest test of this thesis, instructs us to fade New York as 11 point underdogs, as hosts to the Toronto Raptors, the second-best team in the League. Obligingly, we are backing Toronto for the road cover.
We think the practice of rewarding the worst NBA teams with higher draft picks likely accounts for the tendency for poorer play from bottom of the barrel clubs late in the season. Further, bettors clamoring to back favorites versus this cohort unduly discounts the value of home court, explaining why bad teams fare worse at home than away.
But whatever the reason, this system is solidly profitable over the long-term, AND, this season's 21-14 ATS record suggests bettors should not be too concerned about the possibility that the new rule changes to the draft lottery system structurally altered the competitive landscape, leaving the last games of the year more up in the air going forward, from an ATS perspective.
Instead, we regard standout showings from teams like the Hawks in recent weeks as anomalous--while Trae Young might be a legitimate star in the making (the jury is still out on this point), not many teams will have a first year player that exhibits the growth that Young has shown from the first 20 games of the season (where he averaged 16 points on 38% shooting from the floor, for a +/- of -11), to his most recent 20 game stretch (Young's stats improved to to 24 points on 44% shooting, for a +0.4 +/-).
Bottom line: We are backing the better team this afternoon, to do what the better team usually does on the road at this point in the season.
Happy betting!!