Boston Celtics @ Brooklyn Nets -1.5
Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
March 30, 2019, 3:00 PM PDT
The Celtics are a meager 5-5 SU and an even worse 4-6 ATS in their last ten out. Most recently, Indiana took Boston to the edge Friday. The Celts created several seemingly comfortable leads throughout this contest, but the Pacers battled back each time. In fact, the game was tied with 1:12 left to play, before Boston ultimately eked out the win by a single bucket.
The Celts' trial Friday versus the Pacers compels us to fade Boston this afternoon, as, in the past, good teams have struggled to cover facing divisional opposition, after being pushed to the limit in their prior contest.
Specifically, since 2005, teams with overall win rates of 50-65%, off wins by no more than four points have only covered their next game 43% of the time facing teams from the same division during the last quarter of the regular NBA season. This system has delivered a long-term return on investment (ROI) of 11%, and is a perfect 3-0 ATS so far this season.
The theory undergirding this betting strategy is that the intensity of the NBA season does not allow for adequate recovery time after a game that requires a team to empty the reservoir of mental and physical energy. Divisional rivals might be best suited to exploit this fatigue, given the greater familiarity that more frequent encounters span.
Considering that the Celtics will face the Nets without even a single day off, our conviction for the home cover increases (the system is 11-5 ATS when the team off the bare win sees action the very next day).
Happy betting!!