Miami Heat -7 @ New York Knicks
Toronto Raptors -10 @ Chicago Bulls
We like both the Heat and the Raptors for ATS victories this afternoon, on the basis of a winning BetLabsSports-powered system on our radar. As such, we are backing both to cover the chalk Saturday.
We have reported several times now on the profitability of betting against underdogs playing at home late in the NBA season. Since 2005, fading home dogs in games 72-82 has earned a 9% return on investment (ROI), on a 56% cover rate. This system is 18-13 ATS on the year, after a 1-2 showing Friday versus the number.
We note though that performance for this system improves (long-term and near-term) when the home dog has won no more than 40% of games played (the Knicks' win rate is below 20%, while the Bulls have won almost 28% of their games played this season).
Bolstering our confidence in the Heat cover, we note that the Knicks appear to be tanking like they don't know the draft lottery rules changed! Commonly, the worst teams in the NBA, whose best shot at year-over-year improvement probably lies in the draft, start 'managing their records' around the start of the last third of the season (as, by this point, the limitations of current rosters are fully appreciated).
As evidence that the Knicks organization in particular is probably not giving every game their all at this point in the season, consider that New York's median cover margin for games 1-55 was -1.5 points, suggesting New York was in fact competitive with the spread, on average, given their limitations. Since that point though, the Knicks are 6-15 ATS, and have failed to beat the number by a whopping 5.25 points per game, on average.
Similarly, though not quite as dramatic, the Bulls too have exhibited slippage that appears consistent with tanking. Beneath the surface of Chicago's unremarkable 10-11 ATS record since game 56, the Bulls' median cover margin has fallen from -0.5 points per game over the first two-thirds of the year to -2 points since.
Happy betting!!