Phoenix +18.5 @ Houston
Toyota Center, Houston, TX
April 7, 2019, 4:00 PM PDT
A couple of historically reliable indications say take the two handfuls of points and back the hobbled Suns to cover at the Rockets this afternoon.
Supporting a play on Phoenix, we note the tendency for good teams on good runs to falter versus the number against streaking, bad teams.
Since 2005, home teams with cumulative win rates of at least 60%, that won four or more of their last five out are 42% ATS facing conference foes that have won 40% or less of season-to-date games played, but are on some manner of a winning streak. Fading this position has been good for a 13% long-term return on investment (ROI).
This system is 7-3 ATS this season.
Also worth noting, the profitability of this approach persists late in the NBA season.
Further, we observe that, broadly speaking, favorites have not fared well in the past against the largest spreads, particularly in contests between members of the same conference.
Since 2005, in the relatively few instances where teams have been required to lay 16 or more, the favorite has only covered at a 41% clip. Fading this position has submitted a 14% ROI, including this year's 3-0 ATS run.
So, while, on the one hand, we appreciate the value of Devin Booker's absence to the Suns, on the other, history suggests pros can usually be counted on to exhibit a minimum level of relative proficiency, even from the toughest spots.
Back Phoenix versus the number Sunday, as 18.5 is probably just too much to lay in the NBA.
Happy betting!!