Brooklyn Nets +8 @ Philadelphia 76ers
Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA
April 15, 2019, 5:00PM PDT
We are betting on the away team to cover in Philly Monday, as this outcome is the norm in NBA playoff games where the traveling team is off a straight up road win after missing the playoffs altogether the prior season.
Since 2005, teams like the Nets are 24-13-1 ATS from this position, for a 65% cover rate, and a 29% return on investment (ROI).
Of note, the sample size for this system is small, however the consistency of the historical result suggests it deserves consideration. This approach has lost money (in aggregate) in only four seasons, versus eight instances of profitability.
Team-level trends from the regular season likewise point to Brooklyn beating the number this afternoon. For instance, at 26-16, the Nets finished the year with the second-best ATS road record in the League, while the Sixers notched an unremarkable 21-21 ATS record at their Wells Fargo Center.
Further, Brooklyn is 30-25 against the betting line when receiving points. On the other hand, the 76ers are 27-32 ATS laying the chalk.
Also, the Nets are 11-6 versus the number against teams from the Atlantic Division. Philly is 5-12 ATS in intra-divisional action.
Happy betting!!