Trail Blazers @ Thunder -3 1H
Trail Blazers +5.5 @ Thunder
We are backing the Trail Blazers to rebound from Oklahoma City's decisive home win and cover Friday and to collect the ATS road win Sunday, but like the Thunder to beat the first half number.
Consistent with our thinking that the road team can collect the whole game ATS win, historically, teams from the West that saw the playoffs last year have struggled versus the number playing game 4 of a post-season NBA series at home.
Taking the other side in such situations has generated a 14% return on investment (ROI) since 2005.
Going further, Western Conference home favorites that won the most recent game of a series, but dropped the previous two are only 8-17 ATS in the next get-together.
Fading this spot has delivered a ridiculous 33% return on investment (ROI), with road dogs beating the number by better than a five points margin.
However, home teams that won game 3 of a playoff series after losing games 1 and 2 have covered the 1H spread in game 4 the vast majority of the time and have been good for a 27% ROI.
This 1H system has proven to be robust, generating high profitability in the East and West, as well as with favorites and underdogs.
On the basis of these historical tendencies, we are betting on the Blazers to cover the full game spread and the Thunder to cover the first half spread.
Happy betting!!