Denver Nuggets @ San Antonio Spurs
AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX
April 25, 2019, 7:30PM PDT
Denver Nuggets +3 @ San Antonio Spurs
We like the Nuggets to close out their first series of the 2018-19 NBA Playoffs tonight. Accordingly, we are backing the boys from nose-bleed altitude plus the long-ball in Thursday's action.
We poured over BetLabsSports data in an effort to validate our selection, and observed that, from game six of the playoffs forward, bottom quantile teams on losing streaks have indeed struggled versus the number on their home floor. Fading teams in this spot has been good for a 62% cover rate and 21% return on investment (ROI) back to 2005.
Moreover, this system logged losing ATS records in only four of the 13 seasons for which data is available.
Also worth mentioning, this set of rules is 28-18 ATS in post-season game 6's, for a 61% cover rate and a 19% ROI over the life of the available data.
The profitability of this system might be explained by the better team finding its resolve to advance and buckling down in the later games, after facing some tests early in a series. Additionally, the public's penchant for overvaluing home teams might have something to do with this inefficiency.
Denver Nuggets @ San Antonio Spurs -1.5 1H
Contrary to the ATS outcome we forecast for the full game though, history hints that a Spurs cover is likely through two quarters of action; as such, we are also positioning for this outcome.
Consistent with this thinking, we note that, generally speaking, teams riding two-game post-season losing streaks in the first round of the playoffs have proven solid bets versus the first half number in their next contest.
Backing teams in this position has led bettors to the cashier's window after 62% of involved contests, for an 18% ROI.
Further, this system has proven remarkably consistent, notching a losing record only once since 2005.
Additionally, this approach has been especially prescient in Western Conference playoff games, amassing a 38-19 ATS record and a 29% ROI in such situations.
Also favoring San Antonio in the pre-intermission portion of Thursday's action, we have observed that Western Conference teams heading into a game six facing first round elimination have summoned the fortitude necessary to beat the 1H chalk more times than not. Teams facing these circumstances have been good for a 60% ATS win rate and a 16% ROI since 2005.
While this system's sample size is notably small, profits have accrued relatively consistently. This approach submitted losing records in only five of 14 observed seasons.
Our guess is that teams threatened by the spectre of having their season end sooner than they would like tend lay it all on the line in their next out. While this heightened effort is often unsustainable over the course of a whole game (most likely, against a better team), it is typically adequate to secure the first half ATS win.
Denver Nuggets @ San Antonio Spurs u209.5
Finally, we like the UNDER tonight too, as scores tend to disappoint deep in playoff series. We theorize that this outcome owes either to fatigue around the outer edge of a seven-game playoff series, or to scorers becoming less effective against competition that has adjusted to their tendencies.
Whatever the reason, the UNDER has collected after games meeting these criteria 60% of the time since 2005, for a 16% ROI. Also of great interest, since 2004-05, this system has NEVER recorded a losing record over an entire season.
Happy betting!!